News

[Elle]

https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... nglish.pdf

Yes, I read it (not so well, I have to admit), but I have some doubts: for example, Tchakounte (FRA) was 9th in the ranking of the 59kg category, but she doesn't appear in the list. France has to spend its host spot for her? But she is qualified already!

[strapping]

Women: Hou/Luo/Li
Men: Li/Shi/Liu
I think those give them the best chance to maximize their medal haul.

Sensible decisions. I'm curious as to why they chose to publish the selections early, I assumed they would only announce it after the submissions were due in 24th May.

Liao Guifang is a strange choice... Liang Xiaomei seems a little bit ahead of her rivals than Liao Guifang.

Liao Guifang W71 was not selected, it was Luo Shifang W59. Luo W59 is 12kg ahead of her closest competitors.

Liang Xiaomei is probably struggling with an injury, given her poor performance at the World Cup. She placed 7th at the World Cup with 113/140.
W71 Liao Guifang was also not in good shape at the World Cup. Reeves USA may continue to improve.

https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... nglish.pdf

Yes, I read it (not so well, I have to admit), but I have some doubts: for example, Tchakounte (FRA) was 9th in the ranking of the 59kg category, but she doesn't appear in the list. France has to spend its host spot for her? But she is qualified already!

The document specifies that if the host country qualifies 0-2 athletes (per gender) via the top 10, the host country slots will be used.
France qualified two lifters (two or less in the document) in the top 10, so its host slots will be used for those two lifters. If France/host country had qualified 3-5 men or women, then it would have used the OQR mechanism.

This, I suspect, is why the Italian coach was so vocal about the Ukrainian bans. The removal of Konotop UKR, Wilkins USA and Tchakounte FRA would qualify Magistris 10th.

There are three possible mechanisms by which Ukrainian athletes could be excluded.

1. . The two remaining trimetazidine positives from UKR receive a sanction of 4 years or more.
2. There is another (third) positive that involves a sanction of 4 years or more - note that this phrasing is different to #1 where it says "involves" rather than "receives".
3. The Independent Panel (IP) chooses to remove all Ukrainian slots following the positives, which is *not* legally required by the qualification document. The document specifies that the IP can choose to remove "some or all" of the qualifying slots. No protocol on number of slots removed is detailed.

This is assuming that these sanctions will even be processed before the athlete selections, which is a very big assumption. There might be pressure to finish them quickly but I'm not sure they will be done quickly.

[Elle]

Liao Guifang W71 was not selected, it was Luo Shifang W59. Luo W59 is 12kg ahead of her closest competitors.

Yes, I was referring to Luo Shifang... I don't know why I wrote Liao Guifang

The document specifies that if the host country qualifies 0-2 athletes (per gender) via the top 10, the host country slots will be used.
France qualified two lifters (two or less in the document) in the top 10, so its host slots will be used for those two lifters. If France/host country had qualified 3-5 men or women, then it would have used the OQR mechanism.

This, I suspect, is why the Italian coach was so vocal about the Ukrainian bans. The removal of Konotop UKR, Wilkins USA and Tchakounte FRA would qualify Magistris 10th.

There are three possible mechanisms by which Ukrainian athletes could be excluded.

1. The two remaining trimetazidine positives from UKR receive a sanction of 4 years or more.
2. There is another (third) positive that involves a sanction of 4 years or more - note that this phrasing is different to #1 where it says "involves" rather than "receives".
3. The Independent Panel (IP) chooses to remove all Ukrainian slots following the positives, which is *not* legally required by the qualification document. The document specifies that the IP can choose to remove "some or all" of the qualifying slots. No protocol on number of slots removed is detailed.

This is assuming that these sanctions will even be processed before the athlete selections, which is a very big assumption. There might be pressure to finish them quickly but I'm not sure they will be done quickly.

Thanks for the clarification! Do you think Nina Sterckx will go down in the 49 class? Following these rules, she would be qualified also in 59kg category.

[strapping]

Thanks for the clarification! Do you think Nina Sterckx will go down in the 49 class? Following these rules, she would be qualified also in 59kg category.

I don't think so, certainly I hope she doesn't.

Sterckx looks like she cuts to make 59 and dropping weight this late into the process could unnecessarily increase risk of injury.

She cut from 58.4 to 49 for Tokyo over ~4 months, but she looks a lot more muscular and stronger now. I would guess she's probably actually closer to 64 nowadays than 59, without cutting. In the long run she would be better in the mid 60s-mid 70s I think.

[erpel]

From the NOC perspective it would make sense to send Liao Guifang -- i.e. to deny USA a gold. Overall country standings and all that bluster.

[strapping]

From the NOC perspective it would make sense to send Liao Guifang -- i.e. to deny USA a gold. Overall country standings and all that bluster.

Yeah but it'd look pretty bad to lose to the USA as well if Guifang is not in shape (as in the World Cup).

[Hawkpeter]

@strapping when do you want to put up a Paris thread?

I feel like some predictions are worth speculating on, perhaps starting with what sort of totals will be needed for medals in each class before we actually get to who those medalists will be.

[Guima73]

Liao Guifang W71 was not selected, it was Luo Shifang W59. Luo W59 is 12kg ahead of her closest competitors.

Yes, I was referring to Luo Shifang... I don't know why I wrote Liao Guifang

The document specifies that if the host country qualifies 0-2 athletes (per gender) via the top 10, the host country slots will be used.
France qualified two lifters (two or less in the document) in the top 10, so its host slots will be used for those two lifters. If France/host country had qualified 3-5 men or women, then it would have used the OQR mechanism.

This, I suspect, is why the Italian coach was so vocal about the Ukrainian bans. The removal of Konotop UKR, Wilkins USA and Tchakounte FRA would qualify Magistris 10th.

There are three possible mechanisms by which Ukrainian athletes could be excluded.

1. The two remaining trimetazidine positives from UKR receive a sanction of 4 years or more.
2. There is another (third) positive that involves a sanction of 4 years or more - note that this phrasing is different to #1 where it says "involves" rather than "receives".
3. The Independent Panel (IP) chooses to remove all Ukrainian slots following the positives, which is *not* legally required by the qualification document. The document specifies that the IP can choose to remove "some or all" of the qualifying slots. No protocol on number of slots removed is detailed.

This is assuming that these sanctions will even be processed before the athlete selections, which is a very big assumption. There might be pressure to finish them quickly but I'm not sure they will be done quickly.

Thanks for the clarification! Do you think Nina Sterckx will go down in the 49 class? Following these rules, she would be qualified also in 59kg category.

https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... 2O7G29.pdf

Last update, Nina in tenth, i doubt she will lower to 49

[strapping]

@strapping when do you want to put up a Paris thread?

I feel like some predictions are worth speculating on, perhaps starting with what sort of totals will be needed for medals in each class before we actually get to who those medalists will be.

My original plan was to put it up in late June or early July, about a month out from the Olympics. The reason being that athlete allocation basically ends in late June, along with not wanting to clutter the thread.

If others also want to put it up earlier, I'm happy to do it earlier.

https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... 2O7G29.pdf

Last update, Nina in tenth, i doubt she will lower to 49

At a guess I think she probably weighs about 61-62kg at the moment, so I agree. The cut from 58 to 49 was very hard for her, more than that would be very risky.

[Elle]

https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... 2O7G29.pdf

Last update, Nina in tenth, i doubt she will lower to 49

Thank you! You are right, now that she is absolutely sure to be 10th there is no reason to cut so much. Bye bye Magistris... And Zanni, for what I see.