Weightlifting Forums

Qualification ranking, as of 2024/06/21
https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... 062024.pdf

Entry list
https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/athl ... ghtlifting

Scoreboard
https://www.iwf.net/scoreboard/graphics ... d_IWF.html

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Predictions by Weight class?

I was wrong a lot last time (world cup) so I will be wrong again

M61

• LI Fabin not in his best shape, wins anyway.
• Huge battle for medals between Massidda, Morris, Irawan. I feel this is Irawan's first Olympics where he doesn't medal... but he's also him.
• bottom text

M73

• Shi goes AAAAAAAA looking to set a lead in the snatches, Rizki takes the last jerk and wins.
• Battle for third goes fucking crazy. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Masanori (especially after re-analysis).
• Shi doesn't post gold medal snatch in Paris, retires into full time fishing with Tian Tao.
• The world is robbed of a battle between the two, no three, best 73s.

M89

• LOPEZ Yeison wins snatch gold medal, doesn't put imaginary medals in his instagram bio.
• Lopez pushes Nasar for the total/gold in the jerks, but Nasar has the final lift and wins gold.
• Pizzolato has potential for bronze if he can make consecutive lifts, it will be a good battle between him and Vallenilla, Mostafa, Abohkala etc.
• Nasar doesn't take the 400 we want to see unless he wins with his second attempt. If he has a third remaining, he'll take 400.

M102

• Hoping to not jinx it now, but this could and should be the best 102 competition of the quad.
• LIU Huanhua cements himself has the best Chinese sub-heavyweight/heavyweight, beating CUI Wenhua and YANG Zhe.
• Literally the entire top 7 could be battling for medals. Possibly top 8 if TKM continues to improve despite Q2 testing, or if other lifters have freak performances.
• Really hoping that this category gets the send-off we thought it would at the start of the quad. This could easily be the best session.

MSuper

• Lasha still not in his best shape but better than the last two competitions. Wins anyway, establishes himself as the GOAT.
• The two Armenians fight for second place, truly great superheavyweights in their own right who were unlucky to be born when Lasha was alive.
• Ali Davoudi misses out on a medal, suffering the same fate as the Armenians but worse.

W49

• The world is robbed of a battle between Hou and Jiang.
• Hou Zhihui establishes that she is the best Chinese W49 and subsequently, the world's best women's bantamweight that hasn't been roided to the gills.
• The battle for silver and bronze will be insane. CAMBEI Mihaela-Valentina ROU, KHAMBAO Surodchana, DELACRUZ Jourdan, maybe even MIRABAI Chanu or SUZUKI Rira.

W59

• LUO Shifang wins.
• As we see in many of the other categories, I think we'll see a good battle for silver and bronze. It would be nice for Kuo to be in better shape so she can be added to the mix.

W71

• Olivia reeves tries to have fun, probably succeeds.
• DAJOMES Angie attempts to outsnatch Reeves but can't secure it. Obviously left behind in the jerk, but secures a silver which is no small feat.
• Bronze is a lottery between Sarno PHI, Said EGY, maybe a few others.
• I hope we will see a good competition, but I would expect this session to not be as competitive as the others.

W81

• i don't know who wins what medals and i'm not going to guess
• Probably a tightly contested session, potentially one of the real highlights of the Games along with M89 and possibly M102.

WSuper

• li winwin
• PARK Hyejeong attempts 300 again after securing a silver. I think this time, she makes it.
• Battle for third may or may not be close but I don't know the shape of GBR/USA/THA

The hardest thing picking results in single competitions is taking into account the tactics of the coaches. There are a bunch of lifters who look good for medals who can take conservative attempts, build a total and watch as others try to yeet a gold. Arturs Plesnieks performance comes to mind from Tokyo. Wins a bronze when all Hashimi needed to do is making his opening jerk.

Refereeing is also a question mark. Tokyo was brutal. This quad has been better but also wildly inconsistent. Lifters with marginal lock out could miss easy makes.

W49
1) Hou
2) Chanu
3) DelaCruz
4) Suzuki

My thinking here is that Gold and SIlver can be secured in the first 4 lifts of Hou and Chanu. Delacruz I think redeems herself from the tokyo performance whilst Cambei and Kamboa try for a better medal than Bronze and it costs them. Meanwhile Suzuki will make 5 lifts and end up 4th.


W59
Whilst I still dont understand the whole Ukraine positives situation, Konotop has been extremely consistent and good enough for Bronze behind Charron and Lou. Maude Charron is such a great competitor. Kuo just has never gotten back to her best. 2019/2020 was a long time ago, and she hasnt touched more than 130 on the jerk since Tokyo.

1) Lou
2) Charron
3) Konotop
4) Hsing-Chun


W71
This might be a little boring compared to the other sessions so far. Reeves' Gold to lose. Dajomes for Silver and I think Said prevails for Bronze.

1) Reeves
2) A. Dajomes
3) Said
4) Sarno


W81
Should be a great session where the top 4 will make a real spectacle. I think it all comes down to what sort of performance we see from Sara Ahmed. Koanda is super strong and possesses the biggest jerk, so even if she trails Dajomes by 3 or 4 kilos in the snatch she is the only one in the field who could make something well into the 150's if she needs to. Dajomes would need to snatch 125 then follow it with 3 good jerks to put the total beyond Koanda.
The problem for Cikamatana is that the other 3 athletes look like they can make 2nd attempt snatches at 120 then follow it with jerks in the mid 140's. Cikamatana hasnt jerked 150 for a long time, no doubt she will put on the bar what she needs to at least have a chance.

1) Koanda
2) N. Dajomes
3) Ahmed
4) Cikamatana


W81+
Really is a race for Bronze. I think Emily Campbell has the background over long enough period to claim it. Li Wenwen and Hyejeong Park set themselves apart.

1) Li
2) Park
3) Campbell
4) Chaidee


M61
I really want to see Eko win a medal but he just hasnt looked in good enough shape. For a moment there at the World Cup I thought he might be back to his best lifting but alas he wasnt. Fabin for the Gold, Morris snatches 130 and snags Silver, Massida Bronze. Then I expect the highest likelihood of seeing a couple of bomb outs from lifters swinging for the fences to pressure for a medal.

1) Fabin
2) Morris
3) Massida
4) Ceniza


M73
Paris could not top what we saw in Thailand - or could it?

Everyone naturally thinks the Gold is Rizki's to lose. But Shi snatched better than many thought he could. We could get a really good conventional back and forth contest if Shi takes a lead into the C&J. It makes sense for Shi to open heavy enough to secure a medal, then for Rizki to take what he needs each time to put himself in 1st. What will be interesting is what Shi decides to take for a 3rd attempt jerk. Even if he misses his 2nd attempt, he would still go up, as silver would be secured. I'd almost bet that we could see something like 190, 195x then a 198+ make from Shi to throw the heat back on Rizki.

1) Shi in an upset
2) Rizki
3) Miyamoto
4) Andreev


M89
This session could be anti-climatic.

I have no hesitation posting my placings.

1) Nasar
2) Lopez
3) Keydomar
4) Abokhala



M102
This session will be bananas if Paredes is in shape and can snatch 190. That's unlikely, but considering he cant jerk more than 215 he basically has to shake off the pain and try.

Before getting injured in training in Thailand, I thought Meso could actually peak now and be a chance, but I see him out of it. Liu is the front runner and Djuraev is the dark horse.

1) Hiu
2) Djuraev
3) Karapetyn
4) Paredes



M102+
A race for 4th.

I really like watching Man Asaad but he cant snatch enough.

1) Lasha
2) Lalayan
3) Minasyan
4) Asaad

Very quietly, I think this cements Lasha as the GOAT.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am The hardest thing picking results in single competitions is taking into account the tactics of the coaches. There are a bunch of lifters who look good for medals who can take conservative attempts, build a total and watch as others try to yeet a gold. Arturs Plesnieks performance comes to mind from Tokyo. Wins a bronze when all Hashimi needed to do is making his opening jerk.

Refereeing is also a question mark. Tokyo was brutal. This quad has been better but also wildly inconsistent. Lifters with marginal lock out could miss easy makes.

We should expect very strict refereeing; though not consistent. That has been the rule rather than the exception for this quad, with only a handful of competitions (2022 Asians, 2023 Oceania, both African Champs) having a more relaxed standard. The World Cup was a mixture of both.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am W49
1) Hou
2) Chanu
3) DelaCruz
4) Suzuki

My thinking here is that Gold and SIlver can be secured in the first 4 lifts of Hou and Chanu. Delacruz I think redeems herself from the tokyo performance whilst Cambei and Kamboa try for a better medal than Bronze and it costs them. Meanwhile Suzuki will make 5 lifts and end up 4th.

I don't think Mirabai can necessarily secure silver in 2+2 lifts; I think she will really have to battle Delacruz, Cambei and Suzuki to make 200 or so for silver and bronze.

She hasn't shown much of her shape in the last few months, which is normal for Olympic qualifiers. However, she has had a cycle of repeated and varied injuries and subjectively she has only looked worse since 2022 Worlds. This is supported by the results that have been achieved; despite her 6/6 performance at the World Cup with very submaximal performances.

Mirabai is certainly more talented* than the rest, but I would be surprised if she totals more than 200. I think that could definitely secure a silver, but Delacruz and Suzuki are capable of similar performances.

If I had to pick medals, it'd be along the lines of 1. Hou 2. Cambei 3. Delacruz. Suzuki and Chanu are a bit up and down with injury issues.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am W59
Whilst I still dont understand the whole Ukraine positives situation, Konotop has been extremely consistent and good enough for Bronze behind Charron and Lou. Maude Charron is such a great competitor. Kuo just has never gotten back to her best. 2019/2020 was a long time ago, and she hasnt touched more than 130 on the jerk since Tokyo.

1) Lou
2) Charron
3) Konotop
4) Hsing-Chun

brother i don't think the iwf has an understanding of the ukraine positive situation

The wording is deliberately obscure, we will have to wait for the IWF to come to some sort of legal decision. Which is not a quick process at the best of times...

Luo Shifang is the clear favourite. I would put Charron above Konotop but for other reasons, I suspect that Ukraine will not want too much heat from the ITA.

Kuo/Alvarez/Venegas will battle for 4th or bronze if Konotop is removed. Venegas is on a very consistent upward trajectory, I would not discount her from a 230-232 performance. Alvarez has not shown the same form she did at 2022 Worlds; no info as to why. I'd bet Kuo > Venegas > Alvarez.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am W71
This might be a little boring compared to the other sessions so far. Reeves' Gold to lose. Dajomes for Silver and I think Said prevails for Bronze.

1) Reeves
2) A. Dajomes
3) Said
4) Sarno

The battle for bronze is still a valuable battle, I think it can be a competitive class if not everyone shows up in the best shape.
I agree with your predictions.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am W81
Should be a great session where the top 4 will make a real spectacle. I think it all comes down to what sort of performance we see from Sara Ahmed. Koanda is super strong and possesses the biggest jerk, so even if she trails Dajomes by 3 or 4 kilos in the snatch she is the only one in the field who could make something well into the 150's if she needs to. Dajomes would need to snatch 125 then follow it with 3 good jerks to put the total beyond Koanda.
The problem for Cikamatana is that the other 3 athletes look like they can make 2nd attempt snatches at 120 then follow it with jerks in the mid 140's. Cikamatana hasnt jerked 150 for a long time, no doubt she will put on the bar what she needs to at least have a chance.

1) Koanda
2) N. Dajomes
3) Ahmed
4) Cikamatana

I believe that amongst the top 3, it will all depend on how they perform on the day. They are all nearly guaranteed to be capable of 265, and all quite capable of 270.

4th Cikamatana is likely, though if one of the others snatches or jerks poorly, she may be able to sneak past into the medals. I don't think Kim KOR can surpass the top 4, especially not with strict refereeing.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am W81+
Really is a race for Bronze. I think Emily Campbell has the background over long enough period to claim it. Li Wenwen and Hyejeong Park set themselves apart.

1) Li
2) Park
3) Campbell
4) Chaidee

I'd put Chaidee above Campbell. More technically proficient and consistent. Campbell looks to be mostly or fully recovered from her injury in 2023, but I can't be confident she's at her best (or >280) until after the British Championships next week.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am M61
I really want to see Eko win a medal but he just hasnt looked in good enough shape. For a moment there at the World Cup I thought he might be back to his best lifting but alas he wasnt. Fabin for the Gold, Morris snatches 130 and snags Silver, Massida Bronze. Then I expect the highest likelihood of seeing a couple of bomb outs from lifters swinging for the fences to pressure for a medal.

1) Fabin
2) Morris
3) Massida
4) Ceniza

Agreed. Massidda will need to create a lead in the snatches but I think Morris can jerk whatever he needs for the silver.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am M73
Paris could not top what we saw in Thailand - or could it?

Everyone naturally thinks the Gold is Rizki's to lose. But Shi snatched better than many thought he could. We could get a really good conventional back and forth contest if Shi takes a lead into the C&J. It makes sense for Shi to open heavy enough to secure a medal, then for Rizki to take what he needs each time to put himself in 1st. What will be interesting is what Shi decides to take for a 3rd attempt jerk. Even if he misses his 2nd attempt, he would still go up, as silver would be secured. I'd almost bet that we could see something like 190, 195x then a 198+ make from Shi to throw the heat back on Rizki.

1) Shi in an upset
2) Rizki
3) Miyamoto
4) Andreev

First spicy take. Possible, though I think Rizki will best him.

As in the category above, Shi's advantage is in the snatch so he will need to create it there. IMO his strength for the clean and jerk is still there if he can grit through the enormous pain.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am M89
This session could be anti-climatic.

I have no hesitation posting my placings.

1) Nasar
2) Lopez
3) Keydomar
4) Abokhala

I agree with your placings, however 3rd-5th has serious potential for a shake up. None of those 3 (including Javadi IRI), are consistent. Javadi is always capable of 380+ but he has Iranian heart attack syndrome

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am M102
This session will be bananas if Paredes is in shape and can snatch 190. That's unlikely, but considering he cant jerk more than 215 he basically has to shake off the pain and try.

Before getting injured in training in Thailand, I thought Meso could actually peak now and be a chance, but I see him out of it. Liu is the front runner and Djuraev is the dark horse.

1) Hiu
2) Djuraev
3) Karapetyn
4) Paredes

Elbakh doesn't look good. He only had his first session back training classic lifts two weeks ago; before then he was reportedly doing exercises like pulls, presses and straight leg snatches.

I'd put Karapetyan 2nd, Djuraev 3rd. Karapetyan has been on a generally consistent upward trajectory. I think Paredes will struggle to make the jerk necessary for bronze.

Hawkpeter wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:42 am M102+
A race for 4th.

I really like watching Man Asaad but he cant snatch enough.

1) Lasha
2) Lalayan
3) Minasyan
4) Asaad

Very quietly, I think this cements Lasha as the GOAT.

Lasha was already the GOAT in my opinion. Sinclair total close to Naim, not in the 80s (with the usual caveats of Sinclair taken into account).

He is also the only lifter of recent times who has managed to beat the records of the 80s. Drug use is not binary; irrespective of his prior sanction, this is truly remarkable and historically significant.

I think there are no guarantees on the shape of the two Armenians, other than the two of them knowing each other's form. Neither of them seem to have consistent shapes in competition. Technically they are quite consistent but their strength levels seem to be random between competitions; at their best they are great supers who deserve to be remembered in history. Unfortunately, they were born in the Lasha era.

I think Davoudi takes fourth, maybe 3rd if an Armenian is injured. 454 looked good at the World Cup but not good enough for 460+. I don't think Asaad can match 450. Asaad's pulling technique is interesting, he has enormous leg strength but seems not to really rely on it. Perhaps he's stronger in his back and hamstrings. I hope his overhead position doesn't give him trouble at the Olympics with regard to overzealous refereeing or juries.

Entries/profiles are online:

https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/athl ... ghtlifting

Without the training hall media uploads it can seem pretty quiet. WH has produced a couple of nice individual athlete features but for the event that 2 years of qualifying ramps up to - crickets. Seems like not even Brian Oliver got press credentials. I gather it feels a little different for the athletes too.

M61
Snatch

• Self destructive attempt selection from Italy, Vietnam and Bulgaria in the snatch, all bombs. A real shame, Massidda could have fought for a medal.
• Reasonable attempt selection from CENIZA John PHI but unfortunately he can't secure a lift and bombs on 125.
• MORRIS Hampton USA had a reasonable snatch day. 122, 125x (soft arm and other arm rebent), 126. Looked physically but not technically capable of 128.
• ANIQ KASDAN Mohamad Bin MAS great snatch day, missing and then rescuing a 130 for a 4kg PB.
• Fantastic snatches from SILACHAI Theerapong, up to equal PB on 132.
• IRAWAN Eko INA overcooks his opener on 135, but comes back to make his 2nd on it more convincingly.
• LI Fabin CHN does his thing, up to 143 for Olympic record. 147 WR not possible today, and not necessary.
• Solid battle shaping up for silver and bronze in the jerks between INA/MAS/THA/USA

Jerk

• IRAWAN Eko INA bombs on 162x/162x/165x. Depression
• BARU Morea PNG makes an incredible save on 161.
• Li Fabin won, that's not a spoiler. Weights not relevant.
• Great 3 way battle for 2nd, 3rd and 4th between MAS, USA, THA. MAS opened on 167 and made it.
• THA with 3/3 in the snatch, opened on 167 and got it 2-1. Takes 169, 2-1 again. 171, 3/3. Surprised there were no jury overtrurns.
• USA opens on 168, foot slips and he misses. He then takes 172 at the front of the platform to avoid the slippery centre of the platform and makes it convincingly.
• MAS takes 174 to attempt to take 2nd off THA but misses the jerk twice. He places 4th.
• USA takes 178 on a final attempt on the left-centre of the platform to avoid the slippery area. He cleans it well but can't quite finish the jerk, missing 178 behind at arms length. No lift, but he looks happy with himself. He also looked capable of cleaning 185 today.

W49
Snatch

• STERCKX Nina BEL bombs on 86. Opened too heavy.
• KHAMBAO Surodchana THA snatches up to 88, maximal and very nice lifting. Also snatching 88, Mirabai Chanu who looks in good shape.
• FANG Wan-Ling TPE goes 3/3 up to 86 and CAMBEI Valentina ROU goes 3/3 up to 93. An absolute snatch clinic from the pair of them.
• HOU Zhihui bizarrely misses 89 to a soft lock, makes 89, then cuts the pull and dives under 93. In a rare situation, a Chinese 49 has pressure on her (not from a North Korean).
• Overall a better snatch session than M61, pending jerks.

Jerk

• FANG Wan-Ling TPE 102, robbed of 106 by a jury overturn for a pressout that didn't happen (hyperextnesion elbow wobble stabilsing a weight is not a pressout), then takes 107 2-1 for the most microscopic press out.
• Hou Zhihui does 110 for her opener. Easy but not convincing.
• Chanu Mirabai mises her first on 111, hen makes it for her 2nd, totalling 199 with one attempt left.
• Khambao makes 110, 112 looking maximal. Provisionally at 200.
• Cambei Valentina makes 106, 110, 112 for a 205 total. Outstanding lifting, both her 93 snatch and her 112 jerk looked truly maximal.
• Chanu Mirabai takes 114 for her 3rd, cleans it well but can't lock the jerk.
• 114 remains on the bar for the final attempt of Khambao. She does a hard clean but a pressed out jerk.
• 117 on the bar for Hou Zhihui's second attempt, to take the gold off Cambei. Olympic record. Strong clean but rushed jerk, misses the lift.
• wait wtf why does rira suzuki have a 3rd attempt on 117, this is going to be a deadlift. it was a deadlift.
• 117 for the final attempt of Hou Zhihui, and the final lift of the competition. She cleans it well once more, this time she takes an extra moment to set and finish her jerk drive, taking a little bit to stabilise it but locking it out. She is now a 2 time Olympic champion.
• Hou's uncharacteristically poor snatching today gave us a real firework of a clean and jerk session.

Here are the statements of Massidda and Corbu:

Sergio Massidda:

"I am proof that this sport requires a lot of technique and a significant mental component. Weightlifting requires a lot of mental focus and composure, which I was unable to maintain today. This result will motivate me to work even harder in the gym to be ready for the World Championships in December. I come from a world silver medal, so I will need to give my best. After the night comes the day, and after Paris comes Los Angeles. Over the years, I have learned to use competition pressure, to turn it into adrenaline, but today I couldn't. It might be because my whole family, friends, and many people who believed in me were there, and I couldn't handle it. The last three months have been tough, with many thoughts, and during training, I couldn't always give my best. I leave Paris with a bitter taste, but I will make the best use of the experience I gained on the Olympic platform."

Sebastiano Corbu:

"In the last three months, Sergio has trained in a way that was not adequate for the Olympic commitment, and unfortunately, we saw the negative results of this period on the platform. Now, we are focusing on Lucrezia's competition debut, and she can do well."