What will the sport look like after 1 year, 3 years and 5 years if the IOC de-affiliates the IWF permanately?
Does the drug taking become more rampant without the money to pay for anti-doping? and does the role of the continents become irrelevant? if it were me, I'd be wanting to keep continental championships on the schedule to act as an independent anti-doping opportunity an dbarrier of entry to World Championships.
China: does it stay in the National Games? Surely it is entrenched enough for them to send teams to continentals and worlds albeit smaller. The fact that particularly on the women's side they produce so many lifters capable of international podiums makes me thing there would be enough people there to continue high standards in a meaningful way.
Colombia: I have no idea, but out of competition testing might return to zero.
Thailand/Vietnam/Indonesia/Malaysia: I'm probably unfairly grouping them together but I feel like they share some similarities. Is the sport big enough domestically to survive and fund international teams? What will happen to anti-doping efforts?
Sth Korea/Japan/Chinese/Taipei: The sport seems entrenched at the club/university level so I feel like they are capable of continuing to produce at least small competitive teams. Is there enough of a domestic sport to support international teams financially?
Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan: smaller teams, less well funded, out of competition testing might go back to zero.
Iran: I'm unsure.
Georgia: the team seems small, I hazard to guess that it is their Olympic committee that funds it. That could effect things significantly but perhaps they could source funding some how and continue with small elite teams.
USA: I think it continues in a very meaningful way, the sport appears to have broad popularity.
Canada: Unsure
India: their nationals seem fairly well established. The anti-doping effort might get impacted.
UK: Funding has already been trimmed but I feel like the sport would continue but perhaps impacted in terms of international team representation.
What happens in WL life after the IOC?
Re: What happens in WL life after the IOC?
It will be dead as a global sport. You'll be looking at e.g. bowling. A sport of enthusiasts who technically hold "world championships" but without worldwide participation or interest.
There won't be countries like Uzbekistan or Thailand participating in an amateur version of WL. The current generation will fizzle out and that'll be it.
The history of professionalized WL at least back to the 1960s is tied to NOCs and you can't replace that. The WL government expenditures are ultimately about Olympic medals and thus prestige and not a bigger revenue stream (e.g. TV rights for the EPL).
It will continue of course but without WL as a career path for twelve year olds it will not resemble much of old.
There won't be countries like Uzbekistan or Thailand participating in an amateur version of WL. The current generation will fizzle out and that'll be it.
The history of professionalized WL at least back to the 1960s is tied to NOCs and you can't replace that. The WL government expenditures are ultimately about Olympic medals and thus prestige and not a bigger revenue stream (e.g. TV rights for the EPL).
It will continue of course but without WL as a career path for twelve year olds it will not resemble much of old.
Re: What happens in WL life after the IOC?
When the Olympics is on the TV, it will look like it's skateboarding or breakdancing. That’s about as far as I can guess confidently.
I think the discussion of temporary vs permanent de-affiliation is worth something, though I don't think the IWF at present has anything to sell the IOC so my guess is temporary de-affiliation would last a very long time.
For some time after the IOC kicks WL out (say, 2028), I think that China and a few other countries will try to make some level of effort to get it back into the Olympics The sunk cost fallacy isn't a "true" fallacy and China has an opportunity cost if the IOC kicks WL out. If after a few years, nothing happens, the sport dies at the Olympic level.
Any countries which use WL as a way to stir up nationalism (sport is war without guns, sport is politics etc.) like China, ex-USSR would stop caring. Existing facilities may still be used by the hangers-on who love the sport, but most will rot with time or get bulldozed to make room for high-rise apartments or shopping centres.
Equipment manufacturers will suffer financial losses from WL. All WL manufacturers make other shit, so many may stop making WL stuff and others will increase prices.
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We would see the proliferation of different organising bodies, of very variable competency.
One or some of those will be drug-free/drug tested/"drug tested" and others will be untested. Financial restrictions obviously make efficacious testing very difficult (as seen by ITA costs to the IWF).
Elite lifters' numbers will drop at least in drug tested competition. Untested WL will have an entertaining freakshow and probably similar results to current lifters given the decrease in talent and increase in drug use.
From Brian, Rudolf Pflugfelder apparently said "The difference between a 100kg man snatching 160 vs 190 is 1 pill vs 10".
A good hobbyist lifter hitting 135+160@85 can hit 170/200@94 after 2 years with a kitchen sink.
If a competent federation can put together reasonable sized sessions, I suspect that the competitions and quality of lifting could be quite good.
I have seen club competitions that were as exciting (to me) as sessions at Worlds. If I wanted to look at numbers, I would have been an accountant.
Production quality and spectatorship could be passable with modern technology/costs, but you'll never have another Ilya 242kg in Almaty moment.
Re: What happens in WL life after the IOC?
The social media aspect of international WL could die down and/or ramp up.
In the short term, there would be a big struggle for media-only personnel like All Things Gym, Squat Jerk Journalist, We Lift Weights and so on.
Media with e-stores like Hookgrip and WL House would lose intl WL content but could keep selling stuff or make drama vids.
An intelligent organising body would make relentless and (to me) obnoxious use of social media to organise itself, get people involved, spectating, advertising etc. That's business these days.
Being the age/person I am, I grew up with esports and saw the rise (and falls) of various games, associations/companies etc. There are many parallels with the historical rise of physical sporting associations, but obviously some differences too.
I think that a WL association could learn a lot (and poach) from esports, as long as it doesn't forget about its past.
Caveat, weightlifting does not have the same inherent visibility of competition between athletes as a 100m sprint, swimming or Counter-Strike.
However, in times gone by TV commentary was a big driver of weightlifting popularity amongst gen-pop. I've had totally random people ask me if I knew weightlifters (who coached me), having seen them on TV 40 years ago and vividly remembering the commentator.
Maybe this can't be applied, nowadays the minimum threshold for getting attention is a lot higher than before, but it's worth trying. Have an freely available livestream and use ads, subscriptions and donation incentives to drive revenue.
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Hobbyist WL will still exist in dusty corners of the world. Romantically, I feel WL is the sport of cockroaches (as a sport and also lifter/coach personalities) and I have often said "weightlifting is a sport for poor people".
This was said in an ironic jest when I was talking about the cost of sport participation and my perception of the gentrification of weightlifting - but it is actually true. It's not easy, but you can run a club out of a home garage. Setup costs and overheads are cheap compared to other sports. But you'd also need another job to make ends meet.
The currently popular model is running a club out of a general gym (e.g. Xfit gym, independent commercial gyms). This is also difficult and often a poor business decision that one simply accepts to keep doing WL. A lot of these clubs are relentless on social media, posting edited clips and CoNtEnT literally every day. .
National federations may be unable to support state associations, hold big events and so on, but I think hobbyist weightlifting will be largely unaffected. This to me is where the heart of WL lies, so I would be a little disappointed with the lack of entertainment from elite sport, but I would still have weightlifting in my life.
In the short term, there would be a big struggle for media-only personnel like All Things Gym, Squat Jerk Journalist, We Lift Weights and so on.
Media with e-stores like Hookgrip and WL House would lose intl WL content but could keep selling stuff or make drama vids.
An intelligent organising body would make relentless and (to me) obnoxious use of social media to organise itself, get people involved, spectating, advertising etc. That's business these days.
Being the age/person I am, I grew up with esports and saw the rise (and falls) of various games, associations/companies etc. There are many parallels with the historical rise of physical sporting associations, but obviously some differences too.
I think that a WL association could learn a lot (and poach) from esports, as long as it doesn't forget about its past.
Caveat, weightlifting does not have the same inherent visibility of competition between athletes as a 100m sprint, swimming or Counter-Strike.
However, in times gone by TV commentary was a big driver of weightlifting popularity amongst gen-pop. I've had totally random people ask me if I knew weightlifters (who coached me), having seen them on TV 40 years ago and vividly remembering the commentator.
Maybe this can't be applied, nowadays the minimum threshold for getting attention is a lot higher than before, but it's worth trying. Have an freely available livestream and use ads, subscriptions and donation incentives to drive revenue.
-
Hobbyist WL will still exist in dusty corners of the world. Romantically, I feel WL is the sport of cockroaches (as a sport and also lifter/coach personalities) and I have often said "weightlifting is a sport for poor people".
This was said in an ironic jest when I was talking about the cost of sport participation and my perception of the gentrification of weightlifting - but it is actually true. It's not easy, but you can run a club out of a home garage. Setup costs and overheads are cheap compared to other sports. But you'd also need another job to make ends meet.
The currently popular model is running a club out of a general gym (e.g. Xfit gym, independent commercial gyms). This is also difficult and often a poor business decision that one simply accepts to keep doing WL. A lot of these clubs are relentless on social media, posting edited clips and CoNtEnT literally every day. .
National federations may be unable to support state associations, hold big events and so on, but I think hobbyist weightlifting will be largely unaffected. This to me is where the heart of WL lies, so I would be a little disappointed with the lack of entertainment from elite sport, but I would still have weightlifting in my life.
Re: What happens in WL life after the IOC?
I hadnt considered this, but I'd be curious to see what the market breakdown is for a company like Eleiko of competition WL vs their commercial and university gym fit out market.
This would be the critical part IMO. I've always seen the IWF as like Catholicism and PL like Protestantism. If de-affiliation was immediately followed by some sort of schism - probably along continental lines, then doom would be accelerated.strapping wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 3:04 am We would see the proliferation of different organising bodies, of very variable competency.
One or some of those will be drug-free/drug tested/"drug tested" and others will be untested. Financial restrictions obviously make efficacious testing very difficult (as seen by ITA costs to the IWF).
I think the closest comparison we have is looking at some of the 'non-Olympic' A sessions at worlds since 2018. My observation is that they have been among the most interesting and competitive in spite of the absence of the uber-talented elite lifters.strapping wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 3:04 am If a competent federation can put together reasonable sized sessions, I suspect that the competitions and quality of lifting could be quite good.
I have seen club competitions that were as exciting (to me) as sessions at Worlds. If I wanted to look at numbers, I would have been an accountant.
Production quality and spectatorship could be passable with modern technology/costs, but you'll never have another Ilya 242kg in Almaty moment.
I dont think we need a 242 Ilya moment per se, soon enough you'll see a 2008 Steiner moment where someone with a great back story swings for the fences and snags a PB jerk - it didn't matter that there was less weight on the bar than the previous 3 Gold medalist supers. It mattered that it was for all the marbles. As you say, you can find engaging lifting at a club meet.