2024 IWF World Cup - Phuket, Thailand

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Current online entry list
https://mf.iwf.sport/entry_list/

Official website
https://tawa.or.th/2024iwfworldcup/en/

Regulations
https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... ons_v2.pdf

Start list
https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... t-Book.pdf

[Hawkpeter]

Lifters I'll be eager to see:

49: To 10 is pretty set I think.

59: Sterckx I think needs a big total, then even still may end up with a better rank at 49, but that would be a unpleasant cut back down. Kuo, does she factor into China's decision when selections for Paris are made? If Kuo is healthy and makes a big total she have a better chance at Gold in Paris? I feel like the rest are set and dont need to peak now.

71: Top 10 seems set, continental slot is where the swing for the fences reps will come.

81: Main question is what happens with Ecuador between Salazar and Dajomes?

81+: Jabbarova will be one of the swing for the fences lifters I want to see. The rest are pretty much set.

61: Shin Rok and Ergashev with a lot of work to do.

73: Zanni won bronze in Tokyo @ 67 and now may miss the top 10 at 73. Mayora also work to do and needs a big day. I wonder if Shi knows that he has no shot or if we will see him die on the platform trying.

89: Tian Tao similarly needs monster numbers it seems. The rest seem set, going for it, Santavy and Damron. Continental slot will go down to the wire.

102: Rivas, Kitts, Opeloge, Rasulbekov, Chen all going to max. I hope Jin Yun-seong is in shape and can give Jang a good run. The lifter no one is talking about - Lesman. We've hardly seen anything from him, he looks set for a top 10 ranking but will Bahrain wait until Paris for him to go heavy internationally?

102+: Mao will put whatever he needs on the bar to beat Liti. Murakami, Jo and Bidani will battle for every rep.

[strapping]

Lifters I'll be eager to see:

49: To 10 is pretty set I think.

59: Sterckx I think needs a big total, then even still may end up with a better rank at 49, but that would be a unpleasant cut back down. Kuo, does she factor into China's decision when selections for Paris are made? If Kuo is healthy and makes a big total she have a better chance at Gold in Paris? I feel like the rest are set and dont need to peak now.

71: Top 10 seems set, continental slot is where the swing for the fences reps will come.

81: Main question is what happens with Ecuador between Salazar and Dajomes?

81+: Jabbarova will be one of the swing for the fences lifters I want to see. The rest are pretty much set.

61: Shin Rok and Ergashev with a lot of work to do.

73: Zanni won bronze in Tokyo @ 67 and now may miss the top 10 at 73. Mayora also work to do and needs a big day. I wonder if Shi knows that he has no shot or if we will see him die on the platform trying.

89: Tian Tao similarly needs monster numbers it seems. The rest seem set, going for it, Santavy and Damron. Continental slot will go down to the wire.

102: Rivas, Kitts, Opeloge, Rasulbekov, Chen all going to max. I hope Jin Yun-seong is in shape and can give Jang a good run. The lifter no one is talking about - Lesman. We've hardly seen anything from him, he looks set for a top 10 ranking but will Bahrain wait until Paris for him to go heavy internationally?

102+: Mao will put whatever he needs on the bar to beat Liti. Murakami, Jo and Bidani will battle for every rep.

IMO for predictions

W49: Large group of lifters clustered around the qualification threshold. I expect one of them at least will hit 191 to take what would currently be 10th. I expect the majority to miss the 191 or 192-193 needed to qualify, and for most to total less than they have previously.

W59: Sterckx vs Wilkins for 10th. I expect many attempts at 222-223 but I expect rest of them to all to be missed and not by a close margin. Mathlynn Sasser takes the continental, would theoretically be capable (if healthy) of top 10 if she had an outstanding performance but she doesn't need to do that.

W71: Maybe 5 lifters will attempt 242, none of them close.

W81: ECU, USA will have teammate battles. I predict no change to the rankings but I expect it to be close. NASCIMENTO Laura BRA will attempt 253 but IMO technique isn't there.

WSuper: Jabborova UZB, Hotfrid GEO, Akmal IND will attempt 264-265 for the 11th (10th without Koanda). I didn't realise PEREZ Naryury VEN snuck into the top 10 in Caracas. No change expected from me - Hotfrid/Akmal are too late to make such a big improvement and Jabborova will not have the pulling power to snatch what she needs.

M61: Chaos and <35% success rate aiming for 293-295.

M73: Likewise, 336-337 will be a hard barrier. Shi Zhiyong will not, cannot do enough to justify sending him based off World Cup performance. As always, there are other factors involved in Chinese selection including injury, provincial politics etc.

M89: Heart Attack Tao. No upsets or change expected IMO.

M102: I would like to see another lifter total 400, but I don't expect it to be the case. 391 is currently the top 10 cutoff, but I expect it to be around 393. Someone will unfortunately do the wrong maths and take disadvantageous attempts. Smart coaches will use a spreadsheet or program to adjust the rankings in real time to ensure useful attempts.

MSuper: No upsets expected. Mao SAM surprisingly improved his lifts in Auckland but I do not expect the attempts needed to overtake Liti will not get white lights at the World Cup. If they do, the jury (boo) will do their job.

[Elle]

Just a clarification:

How exactly does it work for choosing the athletes who will participate in the Olympics?

Ok, the ranking counts and the top 10 athletes are qualified. And then? How do you choose others? I wonder if there are chances for Imperio, Magistris and Miserendino, since I'm afraid they won't be able to reach the top ten.

I have hopes for Zanni.

[Guima73]

Just a clarification:

How exactly does it work for choosing the athletes who will participate in the Olympics?

Ok, the ranking counts and the top 10 athletes are qualified. And then? How do you choose others? I wonder if there are chances for Imperio, Magistris and Miserendino, since I'm afraid they won't be able to reach the top ten.

I have hopes for Zanni.

https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/do ... nglish.pdf

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Just a clarification:

How exactly does it work for choosing the athletes who will participate in the Olympics?

Ok, the ranking counts and the top 10 athletes are qualified. And then? How do you choose others? I wonder if there are chances for Imperio, Magistris and Miserendino, since I'm afraid they won't be able to reach the top ten.

I have hopes for Zanni.

12 slots per weight category, not including refugee athletes.

Top 10 + one continental slot (for the top continent not represented in the top 10) + one "Universality" or Host Country slot. If all continents are represented, then the continental slot becomes a 2nd universality slot. The application deadline for the Universality slot has already closed (15 January 2024).

The universality slot is essentially the IOC doing whatever it wants, though it theoretically should consult the IWF for that slot. This slot can be used for people from

In Zanni's case, the host country slot will go to KINGUE MATAM Bernadin FRA and continentals will go to Madagascar or Tunisia, so Zanni's only reasonable chance of getting in is qualifying in the top 10. The others are unlikely to get into the top 10 or otherwise qualify.

[Elle]

12 slots per weight category, not including refugee athletes.

Top 10 + one continental slot (for the top continent not represented in the top 10) + one "Universality" or Host Country slot. If all continents are represented, then the continental slot becomes a 2nd universality slot. The application deadline for the Universality slot has already closed (15 January 2024).

The universality slot is essentially the IOC doing whatever it wants, though it theoretically should consult the IWF for that slot. This slot can be used for people from

In Zanni's case, the host country slot will go to KINGUE MATAM Bernadin FRA and continentals will go to Madagascar or Tunisia, so Zanni's only reasonable chance of getting in is qualifying in the top 10. The others are unlikely to get into the top 10 or otherwise qualify.

Thank you!

Egoistically, I hope that Shi Zhiyong will not be chosen to represent China XD. Zanni was not in top shape at the Europeans because he started training with heavy loads too late. According to Corbu, his shape will be better in Thailand.

Here in Italy there is the belief that everyone can qualify, but the girls must do a super competition, by far the best ever made.

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Thank you!

Egoistically, I hope that Shi Zhiyong will not be chosen to represent China XD. Zanni was not in top shape at the Europeans because he started training with heavy loads too late. According to Corbu, his shape will be better in Thailand.

Here in Italy there is the belief that everyone can qualify, but the girls must do a super competition, by far the best ever made.

As said, in sport shit happens. It's theoretically possible, just as it is theoretically possible for any of the other athletes to improve just as much. In my opinion, the probability is very low.

I am of the personal belief that we have probably seen the best of the majority of lifters (Italy and most other countries), and I am expecting big, breakthrough performances in the World Cup to be the exception rather than the rule.

Many lifters across multiple countries seem to be burnt out, physically and psychologically. The other side of that, those who are safe are likely going to do nothing/minimal lifts at the World Cup as they will be focusing their preparation on the Olympics instead.

Of course, I do expect some changes here and there. Maybe 1 breakthrough every 2 classes.

IMO Massidda is safe, Pizzolato is probably safe (barely), Zanni has a ~30% chance, <20% chance for Imperio/Miserendino/Magistris. Of course, with the Olympics on the line, you have to just do it anyway but I won't be surprised if they miss out.

[Hawkpeter]

The medals in Tokyo at 96 were 402, 387, 387 then 386 for 4th.

We could easily see more than that at 89 in Paris.

However at 109, the medals were 430, 423, 410 then 409 for 4th.

102 is not going to touch those numbers.

Why?

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In my opinion, 6-8 (or even 20) is a small sample size.

The classes themselves aren't a massive issue (considering the limitations), it's just that people did not respond in the way we expected and there is an inherently small sample size when dealing with hyper-elite athletes.

That is the main reason why this aberration exists IMO, the other factors listed below are simply contributing to this.

89

• Some good 96s who didn't suit 96 dropping to 89 with minimal loss of performance (e.g. Vallenilla VEN, Yu Dong-ju KOR, Tian Tao CHN
• 81 was a misfit class for a number of lifters - Pizzolato ITA, Dayin CHN, Lopez COL and Nasar BUL maturing into adulthood with assistance,
• Li Dayin CHN at M89 is no longer doing a Mike Tyson interview bit after each snatch
• Pizzolato ITA at M89 was initially much better due to recovery from a shoulder injury at M81, subsequently worsened when he had a back injury and seems to be now partially but not wholly recovered

102

• The top 109s from UZB/ARM going to super (poorly). Djuraev UZB at least made the last minute sensible decision to move back down.
• Two top 96s having injury issues (Meso knees, Moradi shoulder/career) or otherwise not improving whilst moving up (Rivas COL)
• Kazakhstan's S-23 moment affects the M102s, not the M89s
• Djuraev UZB trained at like 115 or 117 or something like that as a 109, lost performance from a severe cut and possibly smaller dosages.
• Plesnieks is old, Naniev is Russian
• Hristo Hristov never competed at 102 against his compatriot Marinov. My best guess is his bodyweight is too high to cut down to 102 and he probably already cuts significantly to 109 (as is the Bulgarian tradition).
• Lesman Paredes BRN AWOL, Liu Huanhua CHN also in unknown shape (but has shown potential for 420)